Mozambique Protection Analysis Update

Throughout 2023, Cabo Delgado experienced a sustained decrease in violence perpetrated by non-state armed groups (NSAGs), with the majority of their attacks targeting military forces. However, since December 2023 and throughout 2024, the conflict dynamics have drastically changed, not only in the regularity and intensity of attacks, but also in the NSAGs modus operandi, increasingly targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. NSAGs also strengthened and expanded in new territories, increasing their operational capacities, including the increased use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The withdrawal of Southern African Development Community Mission (SAMIM) in 2024 coincided with significant challenges in delivering humanitarian and protection responses, largely due to escalating violence and insecurity caused by NSAGs. Over 716,878 people have been displaced due to attacks and fighting. Furthermore, the number and vulnerability of people in need, including IDPs and returnees, has increased by Cyclone Chido which hit northern Mozambique on 15 December 2024, affecting more than 300,000 individuals in Cabo Delgado.

The overall protection environment in Cabo Delgado requires continuous protection assessment and analysis and the establishment of an early-warning system to mitigate the risks and subside adequate response. It is important to note that both violence and cyclones have caused a state of psychological trauma and distress within the populations.

The present Protection Analysis Update does not replace the previous Protection Analysis Update published in January 2023, as many risks detailed in the latter report remain relevant and have not been fully addressed due to the scale of needs during the past year. This report addresses the most severe protection risks identified by the Protection Cluster in 2024.

PROTECTION RISKS

1. Attacks on civilians, unlawful killings and attacks on protected civilian objects
2. Abduction of civilians, use, recruitment and association of children in armed forces and groups
3. Gender-based violence, conflict-related sexual violence and sexual exploitation and abuse
4. Forced evictions, illegal expropriation, and persistent land disputes driven by insecure tenure
5. Impediments and restrictions to access legal civil documentation