Afghanistan Protection Analysis Update

Afghanistan remains gripped by one of the world's most severe humanitarian emergencies. The crisis has intensified significantly compared to 2024, driven by mass forced returns, and climate-related disasters that have now surpassed conflict as the primary displacement driver.

Key deteriorations from 2024:

• Over 2.1 million Afghans were forcibly returned in 2025 from Pakistan and Iran following deportation campaigns
• 47% reduction in US humanitarian funding since late 2024, forcing suspension of critical mine clearance and closure of numerous service centres
• Climate disasters affected over 5 million people in early 2025 alone,  no need to repeat
• August 2024 PVPV law further institutionalised restrictions on women and girls, expanding enforcement authority.

The humanitarian landscape is defined by interconnected crises: chronic poverty and food insecurity, recurring natural hazards (earthquakes, droughts, floods), systemic human rights violations particularly targeting women and girls, and severe restrictions on education, employment, and public participation. Vulnerable groups, including ethnic and religious minorities, persons with disabilities, and IDPs, face escalating challenges. Bureaucratic impediments, underfunded response plans, and increasingly restrictive DFA regulations severely limit humanitarian scale-up. The massive returnee influx overwhelms Afghanistan's fragile infrastructure, straining host communities and escalating needs for shelter, food, protection, and livelihoods. Most returnees arrive in extremely vulnerable conditions without resources, documentation, or social networks.

The response requires urgent scaled-up funding to restore suspended programs and expand services for returnees. Additionally, we need enhanced protection mechanisms for women, girls, and vulnerable populations, along with climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction interventions. Partners should prioritize advocacy for eased operational restrictions while strengthening community-based support systems in returnee-receiving areas.

The protection risks requiring immediate attention in the period covered by this analysis are:

1. Gender-based violence
2. Child labour in dangerous or hazardous conditions and exposure to exploitation
3. Discrimination and stigmatisation, denial of resources, opportunities, services, and/or humanitarian access
4. Unlawful impediments and/or restrictions to freedom of movement, forced displacement, and threats of forced eviction
5. Presence of mines and other explosive ordnance