Intensified military operations in 2026 are deepening South Sudan’s political and protection crisis. Northern Jonglei and Upper Nile at the centre of escalating violence and displacement. Airstrikes, ground offensives, and intercommunal attacks expose civilians to killings, sexual violence, abduction and destruction of homes and essential infrastructure. In January and February 2026, evacuation orders precipitated further flight, including into Ethiopia. More than 240,000 people are reported displaced by violence in Jonglei alone since December 2025. The convergence of national armed conflict with retaliation, inter-communal violence, and competition over land and resources threatens further escalation and repeated displacement.
Civilians face danger both when they remain and when they flee. Displacement drives secondary challenges and risks, from overcrowding and inability to easily access food in Canal/Pigi, exposed shelters and sexual assault in Rotriak, and long, dangerous water-collection journeys in Pariang. Women in western Akobo describe being to frightened to flee in the midst of active conflict, despite the possibility of being killed, due to credible fears that they will be subjected to sexual assault. Between January and July 2026, the South Sudan Protection Cluster conducted 652 consultations with crisis-affected populations who described how conflict, displacement, and economic hardship function as mutually-reinforcing drivers of sexual violence, early and forced marriage, and family separation. In Upper Nile and Jonglei, sudden flight separates children from caregivers, while prolonged livelihood pressures expose them to exploitation and association with armed forces and groups. New suspected explosive ordnance contamination poses a danger that will persist long after current fighting concludes. South Sudan is a context of mixed displacement in which people seeking safety regularly arrive from Sudan whilst communities in areas affected by conflict and climate shocks are subjected to cyclical displacement both within South Sudan and into neighbouring countries. For many South Sudanese returnees, this does not mean a return to safety: Insecure land and housing rights, missing documentation and weak ties to areas of origin increase the risk of eviction and further displacement. Flooding, drought, food insecurity and economic deterioration intensify pressure on displaced and host communities alike. Restrictions on movement, interference with humanitarian access and destruction of civilian infrastructure exacerbate these pressures, while weak justice systems and impunity enable repeated abuse. Decisions on access, land allocation and organised return therefore have immediate consequences for civilian safety and the prospects for durable solutions.
The five protection risks requiring immediate attention in the period covered by this analysis are:
- Attacks on civilians and other unlawful killings, and attacks on civilian objects.
- Forced displacement.
- Denial and impediments to humanitarian access, including access to resources, opportunities, and services.
- Displacement - related gender-based violence and conflict-related sexual violence.
- Conflict and violence related to child and forced family separation.