HNRP / Guidance note – Estimating the number of People Exposed to Protection Risks (PeR) using predictive modeling

2026-07-07
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In many humanitarian contexts, protection actors need to understand not only where protection risks are most severe, but also how many people are likely to be exposed to those risks. However, reliable population-level data on exposure to protection risks is often unavailable. This guidance outlines a practical approach for using predictive modelling to estimate the number of people exposed to protection risks at sub-national level. The methodology is intended to support protection analysis, prioritization of assessments, monitoring, response planning, and strategic decision-making. It should be viewed as a complementary analytical tool that helps fill information gaps where direct measurement of exposure is not feasible.