Guidance Note – Predictive Modeling For JIAF 2.0 Outcome Indicator On HR/IHL Violations

The JIAF 2.0 outcome indicator on Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law (HR/IHL) violations is intended to strengthen the way protection risks and human rights information are reflected in intersectoral humanitarian analysis. The indicator helps bring together protection risk severity assessments and available human rights data, including data from OHCHR where available, so that violations of human rights and international humanitarian law are more systematically considered when determining the severity of humanitarian needs. This is particularly relevant for JIAF Module 3, where humanitarian actors analyze the severity of needs, identify people in need, and determine areas facing the most severe or catastrophic conditions. 

The indicator is being developed through collaboration between the Global Protection Cluster and OHCHR, with the objective of supporting OCHA and country-level coordination mechanisms in producing more evidence-based Humanitarian Needs and Response Plans. The approach recognizes that HR/IHL violations are not only protection concerns in themselves, but also important signals of broader intersectoral deterioration. Where violations are widespread or increasing, they may indicate worsening humanitarian conditions, higher exposure to protection risks, and a need to review whether the current intersectoral severity classification remains appropriate.